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(askanews) - "Le nuove informazioni disponibili indicano che nel secondo trimestre l'economia dell'area dell'euro è cresciuta, seppur a un ritmo probabilmente inferiore rispetto al primo trimestre". Lo sottolinea la Bce nel Bollettino economico pubblicato oggi. "In prospettiva - si legge - ci si attende che la ripresa sia sostenuta dai consumi, sospinti dal rafforzamento dei redditi reali derivante dal calo dell'inflazione e dall'incremento dei salari nominali"."Inoltre, le esportazioni dovrebbero aumentare a fronte della crescita della domanda mondiale" e "la politica monetaria, col tempo, dovrebbe esercitare un effetto frenante meno incisivo sulla domanda", sottolinea l'Eurotower.In questo contesto, aggiunge il Bollettino, "il mercato del lavoro continua a evidenziare una buona tenuta. Il tasso di disoccupazione è rimasto invariato al 6,4 per cento a maggio, confermandosi al livello più basso dall'introduzione dell'euro. È probabile che nel secondo trimestre si siano creati più posti di lavoro, principalmente nel settore dei servizi. Le offerte di lavoro proposte dalle imprese si stanno gradualmente riducendo, seppur a partire da livelli elevati".Per la crescita economica, viene rilevato, "i rischi sono orientati verso il basso. L'espansione dell'area dell'euro risentirebbe di un indebolimento dell'economia mondiale o dell'acuirsi delle tensioni commerciali tra le maggiori economie", nota la Bce che tra i pericoli ricorda quelli geopolitici con "la guerra ingiustificata della Russia contro l'Ucraina e il tragico conflitto in Medio Oriente".Secondo l'Eurotower, "l'espansione economica potrebbe inoltre risultare più contenuta se gli effetti della politica monetaria si rivelassero più forti delle attese. Potrebbe invece risultare superiore se l'inflazione diminuisse più rapidamente del previsto e se l'incremento della fiducia e dei redditi reali comportasse aumenti della spesa maggiori di quanto anticipato, oppure se la crescita dell'economia mondiale fosse più forte delle aspettative".Nel Bollettino si fa riferimento ai "rischi al rialzo per l'inflazione" che "provengono anche dalle accresciute tensioni geopolitiche, che potrebbero far aumentare i prezzi dell'energia e i costi di trasporto nel breve periodo e causare interruzioni nel commercio mondiale. Inoltre - chiosa la Bce - i fenomeni meteorologici estremi, e più in generale il dispiegarsi della crisi climatica, potrebbero far salire i prezzi dei beni alimentari. Per contro, l'inflazione potrebbe sorprendere al ribasso se la politica monetaria frenasse la domanda più di quanto atteso o nel caso di un deterioramento inaspettato del contesto economico nel resto del mondo". di Askanews   01-08-2024 - 10:44 Link copiato Commenti Leggi la Netiquette

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