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Variante Delta, peggiora la pandemia in Russia: 601 morti in 24 ore, record di vittime a MoscaCampi Flegrei,BlackRock Ingv: “I dati non mostrano una imminente eruzione vulcanica” di Agenzia DIRE   17-04-2024 - 18:24 Link copiato #iubenda-cs-banner .iub_ts_bc:not(.iubenda-custom-content) *,#iubenda-cs-banner [class*=" iub"],#iubenda-cs-banner [class^=iub],.iubenda-tp-btn:not([data-tp-nostyle]){ 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background-color: #fff; border-radius: 0.5rem; box-shadow: 0 12px 24px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.12); font-family: sans-serif; content: 'Loading...'; display: flex !important; font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1; justify-content: center; min-height: 50px; text-transform: uppercase;}#speakup-player:empty{ display: block;} NAPOLI - "I Campi Flegrei sono la più grande caldera urbanizzata attiva nel cuore del continente europeo. A partire dal 2005 è interessata dal fenomeno bradisismico che causa il sollevamento del suolo, terremoti ed emissioni fumaroliche. La caldera è monitorata da un sistema di monitoraggio multiparametrico continuo. Tutti i dati forniti da tale sistema, al momento, non mostrano evidenze dell’imminenza di una eruzione vulcanica, tantomeno di grandi proporzioni". Lo scrive, in una nota, l'Istituto nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia spiegando che "le azioni di mitigazione del rischio vulcanico sono basate sulla condivisione delle informazioni corrette sullo stato del vulcano. La condivisione può avvenire in molteplici forme, quali la pubblicazione di dati e di bollettini sui siti web istituzionali, incontri scolastici, incontri con la popolazione esposta al rischio, seminari, conferenze, corsi di formazione ai giornalisti e quant’altro. L’ampio spettro di queste attività è continuamente praticato dal nostro Istituto".IL DOCUMENTARIO DELLA TV SVIZZERAA fronte di tale impegno, rilancia l'Ingv, "risulta pertanto dissonante quanto si può osservare in alcuni articoli di stampa che rilanciano un documentario della TV svizzera sui catastrofici effetti di una futura eruzione ai Campi Flegrei. Si tratta di una informazione non basata su dati, e che ignora completamente tutte le importanti attività scientifiche e di pianificazione che hanno visto, e ancora vedono, scienziati e Protezione Civile lavorare fianco a fianco per gestire al meglio delle conoscenze la pericolosità vulcanica ed il relativo rischio di una delle aree più antropizzate al mondo". "Sviluppare un racconto che mette insieme quanto avvenuto nelle due più devastanti eruzioni che hanno sconvolto i Campi Flegrei (Ignimbrite Campana, avvenuta circa 40.000 anni fa, e Tufo giallo Napoletano, avvenuto circa 15.000 anni fa) con quanto sta avvenendo in questa fase bradisismica - avverte l'Istituto - è solo un esercizio di sfoggio di grandi effetti speciali per chi realizza documentari, e una cancellazione di anni e anni di condivisione di dati e informazioni da parte di chi ne scrive enfatizzando l’allarmismo. Tutto ciò non ha alcun senso scientifico e, soprattutto, è un'informazione dannosa che sfrutta il sensazionalismo e raccoglie l’attenzione dello spettatore-lettore terrorizzandolo".La storia eruttiva e i dati attuali registrati ai Campi Flegrei, raccontano altro, ammoniscono dall'Istituto. "Nessuna delle 70 eruzioni avvenute nell’area negli ultimi 15.000 anni, dopo il collasso calderico del Tufo Giallo Napoletano, si avvicina neanche lontanamente allo scenario rappresentato nel documentario e pubblicato su alcune testate giornalistiche, ignorando informazioni ben note e continuamente consultabili sul nostro sito. E, a proposito di scenari, la nostra comunità scientifica li ha studiati in dettaglio, come testimoniano gli innumerevoli prodotti realizzati su tali argomenti e liberamente consultabili. Tali scenari sono la base della pianificazione di emergenza e sono basati su numerosissimi dati reali che vengono aggiornati continuamente".La pericolosità dei Campi Flegrei (come quella di tutti i vulcani attivi), precisa la nota, "è basata sullo studio della storia eruttiva, sui dati sperimentali che man mano si acquisiscono, sui dati del monitoraggio (sempre più implementato) e sulle simulazioni che forniscono preziosissimi dati di processi avvenuti nel passato di cui altrimenti non avremmo conoscenza. A partire dal 2012 gli studi sulla pericolosità sono stati utilizzati per definire gli scenari di accadimento eruttivo più probabili nell’area. Ed anche se lo scenario con la più alta probabilità di accadimento è quello di una eruzione piccola (come avvenuto per l’eruzione di Monte Nuovo del 1538), come scenario di riferimento per la valutazione delle aree potenzialmente esposte ai diversi fenomeni durante una futura eruzione, è stato scelto quello relativo alla fase più intensa di una eruzione di scala media (tipo quella avvenuta ad Astroni 4000 anni fa). Su tale scenario è stata definita la pianificazione di emergenza e sono state individuate le aree esposte ai diversi tipi di pericoli (flussi piroclastici per la zona rossa, caduta di ceneri per la zona gialla)".Una delle caratteristiche della caldera flegrea, e delle caldere in generale, è la difficoltà di stabilire a priori l’area in cui si aprirà una bocca eruttiva e questo potrebbe determinare una maggiore incertezza sull’individuazione delle aree potenzialmente esposte ai fenomeni pericolosi. Per ovviare a questo problema, ancora l'Ingv, "le aree soggette ad impatto per i flussi piroclastici e la caduta di cenere sono state individuate considerando tutte le possibili posizioni di una nuova bocca eruttiva. La probabilità che la prossima eruzione sia del tipo Ignimbrite Campana/Tufo Giallo Napoletano è bassissima. Inoltre, perché si verifichino queste eruzioni di grandissima scala è necessario che una enorme quantità di magma entri nel sistema. Questo genererebbe dei segnali macroscopici che non sfuggirebbero né al nostro sistema di monitoraggio, ma neanche a chi vive nell’area. Basti pensare che prima dell’ultima epoca di attività, in cui si sono verificate 27 eruzioni esplosive con un volume di magma emesso in totale inferiore a 3 km cubi, l’area compresa tra Monte Nuovo e la Pietra si è sollevata di circa 50 m". Durante le due eruzioni più devastanti (Ignimbrite Campana e Tufo Giallo Napoletano) sono stati eruttati, in un singolo evento, da decine a centinaia di km cubi di magma. "Come potrebbero questi fenomeni avvenire senza importanti e non avvertiti precursori? Comprendiamo che il sensazionalismo e l’allarmismo attirano l’attenzione e i click sul web. Ma noi non ci stiamo, come dimostrano le dichiarazioni di ben altro tono rilasciate dal nostro personale nel corso del documentario".Le informazioni fornite dai media su argomenti così rilevanti per la vita quotidiana delle persone, sottolinea l'Istituto, "devono essere contestualizzate e supportate da dati sperimentali e dalle relative incertezze. Informazioni, tra l’altro, pienamente consultabili sulle nostre pagine web. Il resto sono opinioni, e anche se dette da stimati colleghi stranieri, restano opinioni. I dati, al momento, dicono altro.Il sistema di monitoraggio, quello di sorveglianza e la pianificazione in emergenza conclude l'Ingv - non si costruiscono sulle opinioni". di Agenzia DIRE   17-04-2024 - 18:24 Link copiato Commenti Leggi la Netiquette

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