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background-color: #fff; border-radius: 0.5rem; box-shadow: 0 12px 24px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.12); font-family: sans-serif; content: 'Loading...'; display: flex !important; font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1; justify-content: center; min-height: 50px; text-transform: uppercase;}#speakup-player:empty{ display: block;} La Terra è diventata più scura, anche a causa della fusione dei ghiacci, e assorbe una maggiore quantità di luce solare: una tendenza destinata ad intensificarsi. Abbinata a un moderato fenomeno del Niño, ha fatto risultare il 2023 l’anno più caldo su scala globale da quando si misurano le temperature. Ma cresce anche la quantità di anidride carbonica immessa in atmosfera, e le aziende “Oil&Gas” puntano a identificare nuovi giacimenti fossili e a proseguire con le estrazioni. Con l’Eni collocata saldamente su questo fronte. Eppure gli impegni sottoscritti alla Cop28 di Dubai dovrebbero triplicare la capacità globale di energia rinnovabile: fino a 11.000 GW entro la fine del decennio, rispetto ai 3.400 GW del 2022. A Dubai l’Italia c’era ma dormiva. E a Roma, alla conferenza stampa, la premier parla di tutto senza neanche una parola sulla crisi climatica ◆ L’analisi di GIANNI SILVESTRINI, direttore scientifico Kyoto Club e presidente Exalto► Il 2023 è risultato l’anno più caldo su scala globale da quando si misurano le temperature, con un valore medio di 14.98°C, molto vicino alla soglia di +1,5 °C rispetto all’era preindustriale indicata a Parigi come soglia critica. Secondo il famoso climatologo James Hansen le temperature record dello scorso anno sono legate all’abbinamento tra un moderato fenomeno del Niño — il forte riscaldamento periodico delle acque superficiali dell’Oceano Pacifico equatoriale — ed una riduzione dell’albedo terrestre. In sostanza, la Terra è diventata più scura, in parte a causa della fusione dei ghiacci, assorbendo così una maggiore quantità di luce solare incidente sul pianeta. Un contesto destinato a determinare alte temperature anche quest’anno, tendenza di cui è convinto il Met Office del Regno Unito, secondo cui il 2024 potrebbe essere l’anno in cui l’umanità supererà per la prima volta la soglia di 1,5°C.Per quanto riguarda le emissioni complessive di anidride carbonica, queste sono cresciute dell’1,1% rispetto ai livelli del 2022 e dell’1,5% rispetto ai livelli pre-pandemia, continuando un plateau quinquennale attorno ai 36-37 miliardi di tonnellate di CO2. La vera domanda riguarda le possibili evoluzioni. Quando vedremo un picco delle emissioni e poi una loro decisa riduzione? Secondo la Iea (International Energy Agency) entro il 2030. Alla luce del boom della mobilità elettrica, del fotovoltaico e dell’eolico è ovvio che i consumi dei combustibili fossili sono destinati a diminuire ed è possibile che il calo delle emissioni inizi anche prima. La realtà attuale è però contraddittoria in quanto assistiamo ad aziende “Oil&Gas” che puntano a identificare nuovi giacimenti e a proseguire con le estrazioni. E l’Eni si colloca su questo fronte. Insomma, è in atto una scommessa tra chi ritiene che la forza della rivoluzione delle rinnovabili, della mobilità elettrica e dell’efficienza energetica avvicinerà il picco della domanda dei combustibili fossili, e chi ritiene che questo punto di flessione non si verificherà entro i prossimi anni. Addirittura dopo il 2050, come pensano alcune grandi aziende fossili che dicono “continueremo a ricercare e ad estrarre”. Con il rischio però di rimanere con il cerino in mano a causa di investimenti inutilizzabili. In particolare nel settore del gas, caratterizzato dalla incessante costruzione di nuovi gasdotti e rigassificatori.Luci e ombre della Cop28. La conferenza mondiale sul clima di Dubai, terminata il 13 dicembre 2023, ha visto l’approvazione di 34 decisioni su diversi temi “storici” del negoziato, l’adattamento, il fondo “loss and damage”, con la constatazione del divario tra gli impegni assunti dai singoli paesi e le politiche effettivamente messe in atto. La frase che però ha segnato la Cop28 ed ha colpito molto l’opinione pubblica è stata quella della fuoriuscita (con la formulazione “transitioning away”) dalle fonti fossili in un percorso verso emissioni nette zero al 2050. Espressione che è stata approvata a denti stretti anche dai paesi produttori di petrolio. Ed è incredibile che nelle 27 conclusioni delle precedenti Conferenze delle Parti sul clima il mondo dei fossili non sia mai stato citato. Va poi sottolineato l’obiettivo di triplicare le rinnovabili e raddoppiare l’incremento annuo di efficienza energetica entro il 2030. Si tratterebbe di aumentare la capacità globale di energia rinnovabile a 11.000 GW entro la fine del decennio, rispetto ai 3.400 GW del 2022. Per finire, si deve constatare lo scarso interesse dell’Italia, anche alla Cop28, su questi temi. Ed è clamoroso che nella lunga conferenza stampa di Giorgia Meloni di inizio anno non ci sia stato neanche un cenno all’emergenza climatica, malgrado il 2023 sia stato caratterizzato da gravi alluvioni e da temperature record. Una disattenzione della politica molto preoccupante che implica anche l’incapacità di cogliere le opportunità che si aprono sui vari fronti, dalla mobilità elettrica su cui l’Italia è in forte ritardo, alle rinnovabili con le potenzialità del fotovoltaico, ma soprattutto sulla transizione industriale verde che è ormai partita in molti paesi. © RIPRODUZIONE RISERVATA di Italia Libera   10-01-2024 - 06:57 Link copiato Commenti Leggi la Netiquette

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