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L'epidemiologo: «Numeri importanti»Natalità: Istat,àIstatnelmenodifamigliasuavràMACD nel 2043 meno di 1 famiglia su 4 avrà figli di Adnkronos   24-07-2024 - 19:28 Link copiato #iubenda-cs-banner .iub_ts_bc:not(.iubenda-custom-content) *,#iubenda-cs-banner [class*=" iub"],#iubenda-cs-banner [class^=iub],.iubenda-tp-btn:not([data-tp-nostyle]){ 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(Adnkronos Salute) - Meno coppie con figli, più coppie senza: secondo le previsioni diffuse dall'Istat, entro il 2043 in Italia meno di una famiglia su 4 sarà composta da una coppia con figli, più di una su 5 non ne avrà. "Per effetto della prolungata bassa fecondità, senza significativa soluzione di continuità negli ultimi decenni, e sulla base delle ipotesi considerate nello scenario mediano, si prevede una prosecuzione della diminuzione delle coppie con figli. Tale tipologia familiare, che oggi rappresenta quasi tre famiglie su 10 (29,8%), nel 2043 potrebbe scendere a meno di un quarto del totale (23,0%)", spiega l'Istat. Tra il 2023 e il 2043 la consistenza delle coppie con figli evolve al ribasso da 7,8 a 6,2 milioni di famiglie (-20%). La diminuzione più consistente si registrerà tra le coppie con almeno un figlio di età compresa tra 0 e 19 anni (-23%): di tale tipologia, che oggi raccoglie cinque milioni di famiglie, se ne prevede una discesa a 3,9 milioni nel 2043, con una quota rappresentativa del totale prevista in calo dal 19,2% al 14,3%. Al contrario, si prevede per le coppie senza figli un aumento da 5,3 milioni nel 2023 a 5,9 milioni dopo 20 anni (+11%). La loro quota di rappresentanza sul totale delle famiglie cresce così dal 20,3 al 21,8%. Il contrapposto percorso ipotizzato tra coppie con e senza figli, le prime in calo e le seconde in aumento, determinano una riduzione della distanza numerica tra le due tipologie di coppia, che scende da 2,5 milioni nel 2023 a 325mila nel 2043. Tale cambiamento strutturale, che preannuncia un sorpasso delle coppie senza figli sulle prime in un imminente futuro, in alcune aree del Paese potrebbe concretizzarsi tra non moltissimo tempo. Nel Nord, ad esempio, le famiglie senza figli potrebbero superare quelle con figli dal 2040 (nel Nord-est già dal 2037), mentre nel Centro il sorpasso avverrebbe nel 2043. La maggiore diffusione nel Paese dell'instabilità coniugale - avverte l'Istat - comporterà un contenuto aumento di famiglie composte da un genitore solo, che passeranno dal 10,4% del totale delle famiglie nel 2023 all'11,1% nel 2043. Freno alla crescita di questa tipologia familiare è sia la bassa fecondità sia la tendenza degli individui rimasti soli a riaggregarsi in altre famiglie o a formare nuove coppie. Nel 2023, i monogenitori sono 2,7 milioni: 2,2 milioni di madri e 500mila padri, che rispettivamente rappresentano l'8,5% e l'1,9% del totale delle famiglie. Dopo 20 anni, il numero complessivo sale a tre milioni. Tra questi, i padri soli, rimanendo minoritari rispetto alle madri sole, passano a 670mila (il 2,5% del totale delle famiglie) mentre le madri sole salgono a 2,3 milioni (8,6%). di Adnkronos   24-07-2024 - 19:28 Link copiato Commenti Leggi la Netiquette

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