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Ecco l'eclissi totale di SoleNel 2025 in tutto il mondo le rinnovabili sorpasseranno gas e carbone. 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background-color: #fff; border-radius: 0.5rem; box-shadow: 0 12px 24px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.12); font-family: sans-serif; content: 'Loading...'; display: flex !important; font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1; justify-content: center; min-height: 50px; text-transform: uppercase;}#speakup-player:empty{ display: block;} Secondo l’Agenzia internazionale dell’Energia, il sorpasso delle energie rinnovabili trasforma radicalmente gli scenari energetici globali. Nel 2004, ci è voluto un anno per installare un GW fotovoltaico a livello globale; nel 2010, un mese; nel 2016, una settimana; nel 2023, un giorno. La potenza fotovoltaica solare installata raddoppia ogni tre anni, decuplica ogni decennio. A confronto, nel 1996 il contributo atomico nella produzione elettrica mondiale era del 17,5%, calato continuamente e sceso al 9,5% nel 2023. Lo scorso anno è stato registrato un calo di 1 GW nucleare, mentre le nuove installazioni rinnovabili (come l’eolico e il fotovoltaico) nel 2023 sono aumentate di ben 510 GW. Il ritorno al nucleare da fissione, con la costruzione di Small Modular Reactors (Smr) è l’ultimo tentativo di rilanciare anche in Italia una tecnologia obsoleta e non più economicamente competitiva ◆ L’analisi di GIANNI SILVESTRINI, ► ll nuovo Piano Nazionale Integrato per l’Energia e il Clima (Pniec) prevede il ritorno al nucleare a fissione, con la costruzione di Small Modular Reactors (Smr) per 400 MW già al 2035 e 7.600 MW al 2050. Una opzione che è però altamente improbabile in un paese come l’Italia. Si dovrebbero costruire decine di piccoli reattori, quando dopo la chiusura 35 anni fa dell’ultima centrale nucleare a seguito dei referendum, ancora non si riesce a localizzare un sito unico per le scorie.Ma se la scelta di puntare sugli Smr è legata ai fallimenti, con tempi di costruzione e costi raddoppiati o triplicati delle quattro centrali nucleari installate in Europa e negli Usa nell’ultimo ventennio, è l’evoluzione del sistema energetico mondiale ad indicare nuove strade per soddisfare in modo economico la domanda di energia. Secondo la Iea nel 2025 le rinnovabili sorpasseranno su scala mondiale oltre alla generazione da gas, anche quella da carbone. (Fig. 1). Questo boom delle installazioni fa ritenere che siamo in presenza di un cambio di passo destinato a trasformare radicalmente gli scenari internazionali. La crescita incredibile dell’energia solare si legge dai dati. La potenza fotovoltaica solare installata raddoppia all’incirca ogni tre anni, e quindi decuplica ogni decennio. Fra un decennio questa potrebbe essere la principale tecnologia per la produzione di elettricità nel mondo.Nel 2004, ci è voluto un anno per installare un GW fotovoltaico a livello globale. Nel 2010, un mese. Nel 2016, una settimana. Nel 2023, un giorno. Siamo entrati in una fase di crescita esponenziale di queste tecnologie (Fig. 2). Questa dinamica si è peraltro già registrata nell’ultimo decennio. I costi delle tecnologie pulite sono diminuiti fino all’80%, mentre gli investimenti sono quasi decuplicati e la produzione solare è aumentata di dodici volte. L’installazione di nuova potenza nucleare procede invece a rilento. Consideriamo che nel 1996 il contributo atomico nella produzione elettrica mondiale era del 17,5% una percentuale che è continuamente calata ed è scesa nel 2023 al 9,5%. I dati dello scorso anno sono impressionanti. A fronte di un calo di 1 GW nucleare a causa di un maggior ruolo dei reattori dismessi rispetto a quelli avviati, le nuove installazioni rinnovabili come l’eolico e il fotovoltaico nel 2023 sono invece aumentate di ben 510 GW. Certo, ci sono paesi che puntano sul nucleare per liberarsi dai fossili. Ma anche in Cina sono le rinnovabili che stanno vedendo una incredibile accelerazione. Infatti le centrali atomiche hanno fornito nel 2023 il 5% della produzione elettrica, contro il 28% delle rinnovabili.  Naturalmente, una forte crescita dell’elettricità verde è possibile in presenza di interconnessioni elettriche tra i vari paesi e di sistemi di accumulo sempre più efficienti.  Su questo fronte si registrano dati molto interessanti. Le batterie agli ioni di litio hanno infatti visto una riduzione dei costi del 90% dal 2010, a fronte di densità di energia più elevate e di una maggiore durata. I prezzi delle batterie sono scesi da 1.400 dollari per kWh nel 2010 a meno di 140 dollari per kWh nel 2023, un vero e proprio crollo, destinato peraltro a continuare. E il grande produttore cinese di batterie Catl ha infatti dichiarato che ridurrà quest’anno il costo delle sue batterie del 50%.Insomma, il panorama elettrico mondiale sta cambiando rapidamente e l’Italia deve inserirsi in questa onda positiva. Vista la delicatezza del momento (pensiamo ai vari recenti interventi normativi del governo che puntano a rallentare la diffusione delle energie pulite) è stato lanciato un appello “100% rinnovabili” che ha coinvolto 31 esponenti di associazioni ambientaliste, del terzo settore e sindacali, 36 docenti universitari e ricercatori e 26 esponenti del mondo delle imprese. L’intento è quello di avviare una grande campagna di lungo termine per favorire una decarbonizzazione della produzione di elettricità basata interamente sulle rinnovabili. Ci soffermeremo meglio su questa iniziativa nei prossimi giorni. © RIPRODUZIONE RISERVATA di Italia Libera   29-07-2024 - 05:57 Link copiato Commenti Leggi la Netiquette

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