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Lo scenario di Adnkronos   10-08-2024 - 17:37 Link copiato #iubenda-cs-banner .iub_ts_bc:not(.iubenda-custom-content) *,#iubenda-cs-banner [class*=" iub"],#iubenda-cs-banner [class^=iub],.iubenda-tp-btn:not([data-tp-nostyle]){ 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(Adnkronos) - L’Ucraina attacca in Russia con un’offensiva a sorpresa. La guerra cambia? A cosa può portare la strategia di Kiev? "L’incursione delle truppe ucraine in territorio russo, nella regione di Kursk, e la loro penetrazione per circa dieci km oltre i confini internazionalmente riconosciuti è un fatto nuovo che ha colto di sorpresa tutti, a cominciare dai russi, il cui scopo è tuttora da decifrare nei suoi intendimenti di fondo. Certo è che un evento tattico di tali caratteristiche ha un significato molto contenuto dal punto di vista operativo, una semplice smagliatura nel sistema di difesa russo che sarà prontamente rammendata". Così all'Adnkronos il generale Leonardo Tricarico, ex capo di Stato maggiore dell'Aeronautica militare e attuale presidente della Fondazione Icsa, commentando l'avanzamento dell'esercito ucraino verso la centrale nucleare di Kursk. "Inverosimile quindi pensare a uno spostamento degli equilibri militari che quindi continuano a mantenere le caratteristiche, ormai consolidate fin dalle fasi iniziali dell’invasione russa, di una guerra di posizione e di logoramento, una condizione di stallo che, se dovesse perdurare, farà registrare limitati progressi territoriali russi a fronte di impegno e perdite enormi, anche umane. Diverso è il dividendo che Zelensky può incassare dal punto di vista politico, e della percezione pubblica, internazionale ed interna su ambedue i fronti russo e ucraino - continua - E’ la prima volta che truppe regolari ucraine invadono il territorio russo e incassano un successo militare limitato ma di tutta evidenza. Lo smacco è sotto gli occhi di tutti anche se i suoi effetti saranno in breve tempo riassorbiti, tanto da far ritenere poco sensato che Zelensky se ne possa avvalere in un ipotetico futuro tavolo negoziale. Diverso è ciò che è accaduto nelle più recenti operazioni offensive ucraine in cui sono stati colpiti obiettivi militari paganti ed altamente significativi quali una base aerea di caccia tattici e alcune installazioni radar e missilistiche della difesa aerea russe". "Operazioni che, almeno secondo quanto riportato da fonti mediatiche, sono apparse 'pulite' e precise, quasi gli ucraini stiano impiegando in maniera professionalmente corretta l’armamento di lancio di precisione fornito dall’Occidente e magari anche i primi F16 operativi - aggiunge il generale - Questo sì, potrebbe costituire un significativo irrobustimento delle capacità militari ucraine anche se la quantità dei sistemi è ben lungi dall’aver raggiunto la massa critica necessaria a stabilire nuovi equilibri. Anche i tipi di obiettivi battuti fanno ritenere che, meglio tardi che mai, si sia collocato nella giusta priorità la neutralizzazione progressiva delle forze aerotattiche e della difesa, e la necessità di concentrare su di loro tutte le energie disponibili". "Venendo da un periodo piuttosto lungo di passività o meglio di atteggiamento difensivo, credo che con l'offensiva di Kiev si sia voluto far arrivare a a Mosca il messaggio 'possiamo farvi ancora tanto male'. Un modo eventualmente per suggerire che forse è la davvero il momento di mettersi a un tavolo, ma con delle proposte serie, non irricevibili come quelle che fino adesso ha fatto Mosca", ha detto dal canto suo all'Adnkronos il generale Vincenzo Camporini, ex Capo di Stato Maggiore della Difesa, commentando l'avanzata dell'esercito ucraino verso la centrale nucleare di Kursk. "Quello che è impressionante - continua - è l'impreparazione dei russi, come avessero dato per scontato che non c'era nessun rischio e quindi si poteva tranquillamente lasciare sguarnita una parte così importante della zona di confine. E' abbastanza sorprendente che non sia stata fatta alcuna azione preventiva". Il ministro della Difesa, Guido Crosetto, ha evidenziato però il rischio di un allontanamento ulteriore della pace. "Per una volta non sono della sua stessa idea - commenta il generale Camporini - e capita molto di rado. L'offensiva ucraina è un fatto nuovo che potrebbe indurre a qualche ripensamento, a qualche riflessione da parte russa, magari non immediata ma certamente a questo punto la consapevolezza di poter essere vulnerabili, cosa che finora sembra non fosse nella mente di Putin e dei pianificatori militari, potrebbe in qualche modo far riflettere circa la necessità di formulare delle proposte che non siano del tutto irricevibili". di Adnkronos   10-08-2024 - 17:37 Link copiato Commenti Leggi la Netiquette

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